Impact players ready to come off the bench to cull six stages of loadshedding

There are plenty of sporting examples of impact players being brought off the bench to make a dramatic impact in a match. During Manchester United successful treble run in 1999 (where they won the League, the FA Cup and the Champions League in a single season), Sir Alex Ferguson often brought on impact players off the bench to change the course of the match. In the case of the Champions League final, Ole Gunnar Solskjær scored two goals in two minutes during extra time to secure the win. Does South Afric have an electricity equivalent to address the energy crisis?

South Africa is in need of this kind of inspiration to address the country’s crippling electricity crisis. A lot has been written over the past two weeks about Eskom’s position and Governments response to a crisis which could damage the party come 2024 (during the general election).

An article by News24 points out that there is a giant pipeline of electricity projects that are waiting in the wings. When brought online, they could eliminate six stages of loadshedding. Will Ramaphosa be brave enough to fast track them?

20.2 GW of electricity projects waiting in the wings

The News24 article points out that power projects with a combined capacity of 20.2GW are actively seeking grid access or are already in the process of connecting to the national electricity network, according to a presentation by Eskom.

While not all projects will be able to go ahead, as there is a lack of grid connection capacity, this pipeline is technically enough to significantly reduce the severity or rolling blackouts – or even put an end to them altogether.

Projects derived from the government’s formal renewable energy procurement programme that are currently connecting to the grid, or are requesting quotes to do so, total 5 836MW, according to the presentation, which was delivered at the Distribution IPPs and Generators Conference on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, private projects going through the same processes with Eskom amount to 14 337MW.

The article adds that, in both cases, most of the projects are still in the budget quotation phase – where Eskom determines the cost of connecting a facility to the grid – and it is unclear what proportion of these will succeed in securing grid connections or project finance.

However, the sheer scale of the project pipeline has come as a positive surprise to some in the industry. This follows new legislation allowing companies and municipalities to procure their own power.

The News24 article points out that, in the presentation, Eskom noted that there were large volumes of grid connection applications in some areas with limited capacity.

It also said it would reserve some grid capacity for bid window 7 of the renewable energy procurement programme, which will aim to procure an additional 5 000MW of projects, according to the department of mineral resources and energy.

Eskom added that big battery projects could help to relieve grid congestion while traditional transmission infrastructure is developed.

Battery storage can be used to “defer construction of long power lines”, it said.

Thee article adds that in the most recent renewable energy procurement round, no wind projects were selected as preferred bidders because South Africa’s primary wind nodes have run out of grid capacity.

The Western Cape, Northern Cape and Eastern Cape in particular have reached or come close to maximum grid capacity.

The electricity bumpy ride

The News24 article points out that Gaylor Montmasson-Clair, Facilitator of the South African Renewable Energy Masterplan, said even if half of the project pipeline materialises, this could substantially reduce load shedding, although Eskom might still struggle to meet demand during peak hours.

This would depend on factors such as how much battery storage is tied to planned projects.

Data from the National Energy Regulator of South Africa shows that 1 073MW worth of projects have already been successfully registered in 2023 to date, he said.

The article adds that Montmasson-Clair said bid window 7 of the renewable energy programme could focus specifically on Mpumalanga, a province that has ample grid capacity and which needs to create alternative employment opportunities as old coal-fired power stations and mines reach their end of life.

The Eskom presentation shows that independent power producers have already submitted cost estimate letters to Eskom for projects totalling 8 435MW, even though the request for proposals is yet to be issued.

The article points out that Hartmut Winkler, a Physics Professor at the University of Johannesburg, said 20.2GW of wind and solar projects would eliminate about six stages of load shedding.

“So it is, in theory, enough to overcome the current shortfall.”

However, Winkler warned that it would probably take up to five years to build all these new plants as the surge in activity may lead to a shortage of construction capacity and could cause other bottlenecks.

He added that a number of Eskom’s old coal-fired power plants be retired over the next few years, meaning the country would in fact need something in the order of 30GW of new renewable energy capacity to plug the supply gap.

Is the time for small talk over?

If we look at the rhetoric from Ramaphosa and from the Minister of Finance, it seems as if the time for small talk is over and that Ramaphosa is now prepared to all that is within his power to resolve the energy crisis.

Ramaphosa when behind the ANC’s back when he announced that there would be Minister of Electricity. This made clear by ANC aliance partners following the State of the Nation Address where high-ranking ANC politicians told the media that they first heard about the creation of the new minister at SONA. A week later, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana told Eskom that they would receive the funding to address their debt, but they must be prepared to hand over some power stations to private operators. The question of who in their right minds would want to receive those power station hospital passes remains to be seen. Electricity will be key campaign point come 2024.