A few weeks ago, Turnaround Talk published an article which discussed the unintended fallout of the Eskom decommissioning programme, which would result in mine closures and impact an estimated two million people.
While this may be the case, it is prudent to examine all aspects of the debate. I recently read an article on News24 that points out that more than 30,000 people could die if Eskom neglects to proceed with its decommissioning programme.
Dark projections
The article points out that the projection about the health impacts of the delays, which the energy department says are necessary to guarantee the country’s energy security, add to criticism of South Africa’s draft blueprint for power supply through 2050.
Comparing proposals in the plan to the closure schedule put forward by Eskom, the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air projected that the delays will cause ailments with a total cost of R724 billion.
It also forecast that if implemented, the delays could result in the deaths of between 20 000 and 50 000 people.
“Given that the delayed retirement scenario leaves very substantial coal-fired capacity in place in 2050, there are going to be further health impacts beyond that year,” CREA said in comments emailed to Bloomberg.
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The article adds that the potential delays may also heighten tensions over a $9.3 billion climate-finance pact South Africa sealed with some of the world’s richest nations on condition it began closing down its coal-fired power plants.
The IRP 2023 potentially sees an extra 14 600 megawatts of coal-fired power running in 2045 and 8 225 megawatts in 2050.
Eskom currently operates 14 coal-fired plants with about 40,000 megawatts of capacity and — under its own plan — envisages having less than 10,000 megawatts by 2050.
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy and Eskom didn’t respond to requests for comment.
Significant pollution
The article points out that pollution from coal-fired power plants comes in the form of particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and other toxins. Those cause respiratory disease and a range of other ailments, including heart attacks and strokes.
According to CREA, the impact of the delayed closures of all the plants due to retire after 2035 as well as the Tutuka facility, would be, using the mid-point of forecast ranges:
- 32 700 deaths;
- 330 deaths of children under five;
- 100 000 asthma emergency-room visits;
- 39 000 preterm births;
- 28 million days of work absence; and
- 40 000 years of living with a disability.
The Lethabo stranglehold
The article points out that delaying the closure of Lethabo, a power plant south of Johannesburg, would cause more than 10 000 deaths alone, CREA says. Lethabo lies in an area known as the Vaal Triangle, one of the most polluted places on earth.
CREA, founded in 2019, is funded through philanthropic grants and payments for commissioned research. It’s staff have worked with the United Nations, European Union, Greenpeace and the World Resources Institute.
The South African energy plan — currently open for public comment — has also been assailed for its lack of ambition when it comes to renewable energy and for not providing a path to ending the current outages that have crippled growth in Africa’s most industrialised economy.
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Where do we go from here?
The Integrated Energy Plan provides a holistic view of what South Africa’s energy mix could look like in the future, given ideal circumstances. The plan clearly points out that — at least until 2030 — it will rely on a mixture of renewable energy and fossil fuels.
South Africans cannot ignore the potential benefits presented by renewable energy or the fact that it is going to be an inevitable future. South Africa is a signatory of the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Accord and is, therefore, committed to working towards a Net Zero economy.
With an economic fallout associated with one course of action and a public health crisis associated with the other, we need to find a way to establish an outcome that benefits all parties. The end result is an improved economy that provides jobs for all. A possible avenue that could turnaround around communities impacted by mine closures is the beneficiation of minerals and commodities in South Africa. However, this is an energy-intensive process that will require a significant change of pace that we have grown accustomed to in a loadshedding economy. The closure of Iscor’s processing facilities in Newcastle (KwaZulu-Natal) and Vanderbijlpark (Gauteng) is testament to this.
The actions we take over the next five years will significantly impact the economy.
