Founder: Turnaround Talk
South Africa is not unique in that the economic development of the country is heavily dependent on the state of the infrastructure that is present in that country. We are all aware of the challenges that surround South Africa’s infrastructure, but we are also not unique in the decline that our infrastructure is currently experiencing, Zimbabwe is a sobering example that comes to mind.
I am not for one minute suggesting that South Africa may get to the same levels as our beleaguered northern neighbor. However, it is worth noting that Zimbabwe was once referred to as the Breadbasket of Africa with infrastructure that rivalled any first world country in the 1970s and 1980s. The decline of Zimbabwe was rapid, and South Africa could face a similar outcome if Government does not intervene as a matter of urgency.
I recently read an article on News24 by Nick Hedley which shows the sorry state of South Africa’s key infrastructure. Hedley references statistics supplied by Stats SA.
Electricity
The article points out that, in 2022, the volume of electricity distributed in South Africa was 214 773 gigawatt hours (GWh).
Back in 2007 – when rolling blackouts first emerged – the volume of electricity available for distribution was 241 414 GWh. That’s an 11% decline in 15 years.
The article adds that a decline in power supply – when driven by generation challenges rather than efficiency gains – means it’s impossible to grow the economy and create jobs.
The power crisis has its roots in bad energy planning by the Mbeki administration in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
At the time, the government was warned that electricity demand would catch up with supply by 2007, but it effectively ignored those warnings.
The News24 article points out that, eventually, the state instructed Eskom to add new coal plants, but it was far too late. Eskom no longer had the necessary skills, and the planning for Medupi and Kusile was rushed, yielding huge design flaws that are still being rectified to this day.
The state monopoly went from being the world’s top-rated utility in 2001 to a drag on the economy by 2007, as predicted by the experts the ANC chose to ignore.
The article adds that, 15 years on, things could get worse still. Of Eskom’s 15 coal-fired power plants, seven will reach their end of life this decade and will be decommissioned. Some urgency is needed to bring new generation capacity online, but none is evident, despite all the task teams.
Photo By: Canva
Rail
The News24 article points out that the implosion of South Africa’s rail infrastructure is even more eye watering.
In the first 11 months of 2022 – the most up-to-date set of data – only 143 million tonnes of goods were moved by rail in the country.
The article adds that the corresponding period in 2012 saw 192 million tonnes of goods transported via rail. That’s a 26% decline in a decade.
But here’s the most sickening statistic of all:
The article adds that, in the first 11 months of 2022, there were 17.2 million rail passenger journeys in South Africa. That’s a 97% decline from a decade before (506.7 million).
Yet the Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa employed around 17 000 people in its 2022 financial year – about 2 000 more than it did in 2012. What on earth are all those extra employees doing?
The massive rail-to-road shift of the past decade is placing strain on the country’s road network. It’s also putting commuters at far greater risk, and is driving up South Africa’s carbon emissions.
The article points out that, with this in mind, the South African National Roads Agency (Sanral) probably deserves some credit. Our national roads – that excludes regional and municipal ones – are still in good condition. In my mind, Sanral is the only major state-owned enterprise that’s (sort of) doing its job, despite its own governance problems over the years.
Yet the increase in road traffic volumes will no doubt have a serious toll (excuse the pun) on key transport corridors in the years ahead.
Photo By: Transnet
Water
The article points out that the next major crisis will come from the rapid deterioration of South Africa’s water infrastructure. Once again, poor planning and corruption have set us on a dangerous path, and load shedding is also wreaking havoc on water treatment and storage facilities.
So, what can be done?
The article adds that the first prize is to vote in a new government. The governing party is clearly incapable of fixing the mess it’s created, and ministers including Gwede Mantashe constantly stand in the way of solutions.
But since elections will only be held next year, temporary solutions are needed.
The article points out that all households and businesses with the financial means need to be installing rooftop solar panels. There are plenty of financing options available now, but the state could speed things up by offering generous feed-in tariffs and removing value-added tax on panels, inverters and batteries – though I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Transnet, the freight rail operator, should allow third-party access to its network. It claims that it’s already doing this, but the terms on offer are not practical or workable.
The article adds that President Cyril Ramaphosa simply has to loosen Prasa’s toxic grip on the passenger rail network by giving cities and provinces more control over it.
Meanwhile, municipalities will need to install backup power systems for their water facilities.
Make no mistake, South Africa remains a country with enormous potential. It’s possible that we’ve hit rock bottom, and as citizens take things into their own hands, things will improve.
What does South Africa have that Zimbabwe doesn’t? While ineffective, lethargic, and often incompetent, the South African Government is not blind to the challenges that the country is experiencing. Ramaphosa wants to implement change, but he is facing his own challenges. Phala Phala won’t go away and Ramaphosa is still dealing with significant factionalism within the ANC which doesn’t look like it will disappear before the 2024 general election.
A house divided against itself will fall. The ANC need to sort out their internal struggles and then the country’s all before the July uprising gets overshadowed by something even greater.
