Director: Corporate-911
At the height of the Covid-19 Pandemic, the Global Supply Chain Crisis grew into an uncontrollable beast which just got worse as the Pandemic became longer.
While there was no supply chain crisis before the Pandemic, there were concerns about the fragility of global supply chains and how a single even can derail an entire business function, a function which is critical to the success of many companies.
The worst impacts of the Pandemic are gone, for now. Yet, the Global Supply Chain Crisis remains. Companies have begun coming up with plans to address the crisis. However, this crisis is now being impacted by other challenges that are not so easily resolved.
The rising cost of living
The WEF report points out that skyrocketing inflation has seen households hit hard by rising food costs. Expectations that consumers will have to severely cut back on expenditure this winter has plunged demand for goods and services into uncertainty.
This makes it difficult for supply chain planners to accurately estimate in advance the amounts and types of goods likely to be needed by consumers. The pandemic has already changed this picture considerably but predicting demand has become even more difficult in 2022.
The report adds that stock for the Christmas shopping period is made and shipped months in advance, so current uncertainty is likely to feed into incorrect forecasts. This could lead to disappointment this Christmas if certain products are difficult to find or more expensive to buy as tighter supply pushes up prices.
Photo By: Canva
Labour unrest
The rise in the cost of living has also seen workers demand wage increases to counteract the impact of inflation on their pay packets.
The WEF report points out that industrial action ups the pressure on supply chains. Striking truckers in South Korea have already disrupted computer supply chains this summer, while UK railway strikes have affected deliveries of construction materials.
Dock workers have been on strike in Germany and the UK, while freight hubs in Ireland are expected to clog up due to strikes at the Port of Liverpool across the Irish Sea. Some UK unions have floated the idea of coordinated strike action in coming months, which could cause further disruption to supply chains.
In addition, truck driver shortages seen in 2021 have continued this year. In fact, labour shortages have spread to other sectors that support supply chains, including ports and warehouses.
The report adds that, coupled with increased e-commerce demand since the start of the pandemic, operations are becoming increasingly strained for many businesses.
Energy shortages
The report points out that inflation has not only been a problem for food prices, but also energy costs. Rising gas prices and reduced supply from Russia are forcing European companies to look to alternative energy sources like coal, while research from Germany’s Chambers of Industry and Commerce shows 16% of its companies expect to either scale back production or partially discontinue business operations.
Germany is Europe’s largest economy, and it is heavily dependent on exports. If it is expecting a recession, the impact on manufacturing supply chains globally could be significant.
But even countries that are less reliant on Russian gas are experiencing energy price rises with serious consequences for businesses. Pakistan has shortened its work week to lower energy demand. In Norway, fertiliser production has been slashed, affecting food supply chains.
The report adds that US retailers are cutting their sales forecasts and UK car makers are worried about their output. In southwestern China, car assembly plants and electronics factories have already started to close due to a lack of power. All of these disruptions will cause ripples along global supply chains.
Geopolitical uncertainty
The report points out that the invasion of Ukraine is the root cause for much of the energy and food price inflation countries are experiencing at the moment. It has thrown supply chains into disarray this year, fuelling a global food crisis.
A fertiliser shortage is also limiting agricultural output in many countries. While some grain ships have now left Ukraine, unlocking important supplies that will address famine in countries like Yemen, this will not solve the global food supply crisis.
The report adds that, in other parts of the world, tensions between China and the US that were already playing out pre-pandemic have continued. Recent Chinese military exercises in the Taiwan Strait following a visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi disrupted one of the world’s busiest shipping zones in August.
Any further escalation of tensions could disrupt, for example, supply chains that deliver semi-conductors used in computers to manufacturers around the world.
Photo By: Canva
Extreme weather
The report points out that climate change is a much more long-running problem for supply chains. This year, drought has caused water levels to drop around the world, impacting major shipping supply routes.
Low water means ships can only carry a fraction of their usual freight to minimise the risk of running aground. While freight can be diverted to other types of transport, a single ship might require more than 500 trucks to move its cargo.
The report adds that, in recent months, parts of China’s Yangtze river, which is responsible for 45% of the country’s economic output, have been closed to ships because water levels are more than 50% below normal. Two thirds of Europe is also experiencing drought conditions, which are only expected to worsen.
The Rhine currently has so little water that some ships can only carry a quarter of their usual freight. The drought has also hit at a time when the Rhine and other rivers are needed to move high volumes of coal and gas to prevent energy shortages.
The report points out that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and more intense due to climate change. Predictions for extreme weather during winter 2022 include a more active than usual hurricane season, which could hit several key Atlantic Ocean shipping routes.
These five issues are likely to affect lead times in the delivery of products, particularly electronics or automobiles that are produced in China and delivered to western markets. While shortages are unlikely, some products could take longer to reach our shops this winter as a result.
Robin Nicholson is the Director of Corporate-911 and is a Senior Business Rescue Practitioner.
